xinjiang final, Etnologia i antropologia, Antropologia polityczna
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THE
XINJIANG
PROBLEM
Graham E. Fuller
S. Frederick Starr
© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
The Johns Hopkins University
Tel.: 1 202 663 7723
Mwalke21@jhu.edu
The Xinjiang Problem
3
Table of Contents
Introduction: The Xinjiang Project............................................. 1
I. What is the Problem in Xinjiang? ...........................................4
II. The Geopolitical Realities: a Primer......................................10
III. What Do The Key Players Want? .......................................16
Uyghur Grievances.................................................................................. 16
Uyghur Goals and Actions ........................................................................22
China’s Grievances..................................................................................26
China’s Goals and Actions ........................................................................30
IV. What Is At Stake? Why The Xinjiang Problem Matters ........33
Implications for Ethnic Minorities.............................................................. 33
Uyghurs and the Muslim World.................................................................34
Terrorism .............................................................................................. 40
China and Regional Geopolitics..................................................................43
Human Rights Issues................................................................................47
Economic Factors......................................................................................47
V. Four Alternative Scenarios. ................................................ 50
A Floundering China................................................................................ 51
A Hostile and Belligerent China.................................................................52
A Successful and Triumphal China.............................................................54
A Successful, Liberalizing, and Restrained China .........................................56
VI. Key External Variables In The Evolution Of The Uyghur
Problem...............................................................................59
The Pace of Stability, Progress and Reform in Greater Central Asia...............59
4
The Xinjiang Problem
The Rise of Other Great Powers in the Region.............................................60
A Radicalized Islamic Pakistan...................................................................61
The Longer Range Impact Of The US-Led War Against Terrorism............... 62
Stability, Progress And Reform—Or Their Absence -- In Other Parts Of
Central Asia........................................................................................... 63
International Efforts To Lessen Support To Islamist Movements In The Greater
Central Asian Region...............................................................................64
The Development of Pan-Turkic Trends in the Region..................................66
VII. Why the Situation May Get Worse................................... 67
The Paradox of Development..................................................................... 67
Chinese Partition of Xinjiang.................................................................... 67
A Uyghur “Bantustan” ............................................................................68
Divide and Rule.......................................................................................68
Worsening Crises over Water...................................................................69
VIII. Prognoses and Conclusions .............................................. 71
IX. What Should Be Done? ................................................... 74
What Beijing Should Do........................................................................... 74
What Uyghurs Should Do ........................................................................ 75
What Neighboring States Should Do.......................................................... 76
What the United States Should Do............................................................ 77
In Lieu of a Bibliography........................................................ 80
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